A North Korea soldier gestures to stop photographers from taking photos from a Chinese tour boat as other soldiers look on along the North Korean bank of the Yalu River near the town of Sinuiji across the Chinese city of Dandong in Liaoning province, China, on Saturday, April 6. North Korean leader Kim Jong Un has ordered the country's military to increase artillery production, a televised report out of Pyongyang showed on Saturday.
Editor's note: Sung-Yoon Lee is the Kim Koo-Korea Foundation professor in Korean studies and assistant professor at the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University. As tensions mount on the Korean Peninsula, Wolf Blitzer explains what's behind the threats and what's at stake in a special edition of "The Situation Room," tonight at 6 p.m. ET on CNN.
(CNN) -- North Korea is no laggard when it comes to bluster and vituperation.
For decades, the regime has issued threats of turning South Korea into a "sea of fire" or used choice words such as "human scum" or "political idiot" when denouncing South Korean and U.S. leaders.
But even measured against such standards, North Korea's barrage over the past month, from threatening to launch an "all-out war" to "diversified precision nuclear strike" against Washington, "wipe out" a South Korean island, or hurling a sexist insult against Park Geun-hye, South Korea's first female elected leader, to, most recently, warning of an imminent "moment of explosion," is quite unusual.
And now, after saying that plans for merciless operation has been "finally examined and ratified," Pyongyang is hinting at another long-range missile launch.
What's going on?
First, we must assume the North Korean leadership is not crazy or suicidal in spite of bizarre things it says and does.
Cruel, totalitarian and solipsistic the Kim dynasty surely is. But the fact that it has managed to preserve itself for more 60 years and, in the post-Cold War era, in spite of the everyday existential threat of facing an immeasurably more successful Korean state across the border, the impoverished North has shown itself to be, if nothing else, calculating and resilient.
Opinion: Kim Jong Un is not crazy
What is Pyongyang calculating? The same it has since the end of the Korean War 60 years ago. The two constants in North Korea's foreign policy are its continual calls for the withdrawal of U.S. troops from South Korea and blaming "U.S. hostile policy" for the tension enveloping the Korean Peninsula.
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Pyongyang sees the U.S. commitment to the defense of South Korea, as powerfully symbolized by the presence of American troops in the South, as the greatest impediment to its highest state task. As North Korea states in the charter to its communist party, that task is to "(en)sure the complete victory of socialism in the northern half of the Democratic People's Republic of Korea and the accomplishment of the revolutionary goals of national liberation and the people's democracy on the entire area of the country." In plain language, that means dissolving the South Korean government and communizing the entire Korean Peninsula by force.
North Korea's frequent threats are a means to a long-term end.
The first step is to impregnate the South Korean public with war hysteria and the illusion that the withdrawal of U.S. troops would lead to peace and reconciliation between the two Koreas.
The second is to instill fear in the American public by one day demonstrating its capability to marry a nuclear warhead with an intercontinental ballistic missile with the range to hit the U.S. West Coast. When that day comes, Washington may have second thoughts about its treaty commitment to the defense of South Korea, Pyongyang calculates.
So far, timing seems to be in Pyongyang's favor. Over the past year, all the major powers in North Korea's neck of the woods have undergone a leadership transition. Moreover, in Seoul, Beijing and Tokyo, leadership transitions have occurred only in recent months.
That creates a particularly appeasement-prone environment, as no newly elected leader wishes to spend political capital on a foreign policy crisis created by North Korea when many other pressing domestic issues beckon.
So Pyongyang reckons that after ratcheting up tension as high as it can and then simply take a little step back, it can lure its richer interlocutors into returning to talks and the kind of concessionary aid worth billions of dollars we have seen in the past.
This means the risk of North Korea starting an all-out war is quite small, although there is always the possibility of miscalculation. It also means that Pyongyang will most likely not just go quietly into the night after having thumped its chest for so long. We should expect some kind of deadly, although limited, attack to come soon.
How should Seoul and Washington respond?
For starters, they could clamp down on the North's multifaceted criminal activities and put psychological pressure on the elites. Second, they could raise awareness on North Korea's systematic and widespread human rights violations so that democratic countries come to view the regime as a threat to humanity instead of some abstract amalgamation of the dreadful and the bizarre.
This approach may not yield immediate changes in regime behavior. But at the very least it will finally put the "stick" in the proverbial carrot-and-stick metaphor for taming Pyongyang.
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The opinions expressed in this commentary are solely those of Sung-Yoon Lee.
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North Korean soldiers gather by the docks in Sinuiju near the Chinese border on Thursday, April 4. North Korea has unleashed another round of scathing rhetoric accusing the United States of pushing the region to the "brink of war." The country may be planning a missile launch soon, a U.S. official told CNN, as tensions mount on the Korean Peninsula.
North Korean soldiers patrol along the Yalu River in Sinuiju across the border from the Chinese city of Dandong on April 4.
Kim Jong Un is briefed by his generals in this undated photo. On the wall is a map titled "Plan for the strategic forces to target mainland U.S."
Kim Jong Un works during a briefing in this undated photo.
North Korean leader Kim Jong Un inspects drills by the Korean People's Army navy at an undisclosed location on North Korea's east coast on March 25 in a photo from the state-run Korean Central News Agency.
Kim makes his way to an observation post with North Korean soldiers on March 25.
Kim uses a pair of binoculars to look south from the Jangjae Islet Defense Detachment near South Korea's Taeyonphyong Island on March 7.
Kim is greeted by the family of a soldier as he inspects Jangjae Islet Defense Detachment near South Korea's Taeyonphyong Island in South Hwanghae province on Thursday, March 7, in a photo from the state-run Korean Central News Agency.
Kim is surrounded by soldiers during a visit to the Mu Islet Hero Defense Detachment near South Korea's Taeyonphyong Island on March 7. North Korea has escalated its bellicose rhetoric, threatening nuclear strikes, just before the U.N. Security Council passed tougher sanctions against the secretive nation on March 7.
Kim arrives at Jangjae Islet by boat to meet with soldiers of the Jangjae Islet Defense Detachment near Taeyonphyong Island in South Hwanghae province on March 7.
Soldiers in the North Korean army train at an undisclosed location on March 6.
North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, center, poses with chiefs of branch social security stations in this undated picture released by North Korea's official news agency on November 27.
Kim celebrates with staff from the satellite control center in Pyongyang, North Korea, during the launch of a rocket carrying a satellite, in a photo released by the official North Korean news agency on December 12.
A crowd watches as statues of the nation's founder, Kim Il Sung, and his son Kim Jong Il are unveiled during a ceremony in Pyongyang on April 13, 2012. Photos from North Korea are rare, but the country was on full display in April 2012 as it celebrated the 100th birthday of Kim Il Sung.
A North Korean soldier stands guard in front of an UNHA III rocket at the Tangachai-ri Space Center on April 8, 2012.
In April 2012, Pyongyang launched a long-range rocket, which broke apart and fell into the sea. The UNHA III rocket is pictured on its launch pad in Tang Chung Ri, North Korea.
A closer look at the UNHA III rocket on its launch pad in Tang Chung Ri, North Korea.
A military vehicle participates in a parade in Pyongyang on April 15, 2012.
North Koreans wave flags in front of portraits of Kim Il Sung, left, and his son Kim Jong Il during celebrations to mark the 100th birth anniversary of Kim Il Sung in Pyongyang on April 16, 2012.
North Korean soldiers relax at the end of an official ceremony attended by leader Kim Jong Un at a stadium in Pyongyang on April 14, 2012.
Kim Jong Un applauds as he watches a military parade in Pyongyang on April 15, 2012.
A North Korean soldier stands on a balcony in Pyongyang on April 16, 2012.
North Korean soldiers march during a military parade in Pyongyang on April 15, 2012.
Soldiers board a bus outside a theater in Pyongyang on April 16, 2012.
North Korean performers sit below a screen showing images of leader Kim Jong Un in Pyongyang on April 16, 2012.
North Korean soldiers salute during a military parade in Pyongyang on April 15, 2012.
Kim Jong Un visits the Rungna People's Pleasure Ground, which is under construction in Pyongyang, in a photo released on July 3, 2012, by North Korea's official Korean Central News Agency.
North Korean soldiers listen to a speech during an official ceremony attended by leader Kim Jong Un at a stadium in Pyongyang on April 14, 2012.
Members of a North Korean military band gather following an official ceremony at the Kim Il Sung stadium in Pyongyang on April 14, 2012.
North Korean military personnel watch a performance in Pyongyang on April 16, 2012.
A North Korean controller is seen along the railway line between Pyongyang and North Pyongan province on April 8, 2012.
A North Korean military honor guard stands at attention at Pyongyang's airport during a diplomatic visit on May 2, 2001.
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